The transition to a low carbon economy
forms part of the South African National Development Plan – Vision 2030, the
National Strategy for Sustainable Development and Action Plan (2014) and the
New Growth Path (2020). Furthermore the
Green Economy Accord was agreed to by the government, labour unions, civil
society and the private sector with the aim of creating 300 000 new work
opportunities in the green economy by 2020 (Department of Environmental Affairs
and Energy, 2013). This green economy approach supports growth
and low-carbon development which South Africa has included in the country’s future
development plans to foster an inclusive and sustainable economy.
The four critical economic sectors
identified for investment in this South African Green Economy Model (SAGEM) are:
- Natural resource management
- Agriculture
- Transport and
- Energy
So is this transition to a low-carbon economy
already happening before any formal investment?
Figure 1 shows the relationship between CPI linked GDP and CO2
emissions (Real GDP/MtCO2) each year since 1990. What is clear is that the carbon intensity of
the South African economy peaked around 1995; has decreased slowly since then
and is projected to continue a downward trend as seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Real GDP to CO2 emissions relationship for South Africa (“IEA - Report”, n.d.)
From further investigation, one of the main
reasons for the downward trend is due to real GDP more than doubling (108%
increase) in the period 1990 – 2012 (“Statistics South Africa”, n.d.). Thus by fitting the curve in
Figure 1 there has been a decline/decoupling of carbon intensity and economic
growth which has mainly been due to the increasing GDP as the CO2 emissions
in millions of tons has increased by 48% from 1990 - 2012. The main contributors to this increase being
energy production, industrial processes and AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Use) and Waste (Letete, Guma & Marquard, 2010). One can argue that with CO2
emissions increasing, this ideal transition is not happening and that a true or
absolute decoupling has not taken place.
However, the economy has been growing without carbon emissions increasing at the same rate which does
indicate a gradual de-coupling of GDP and carbon emissions. However, this is not sustainable growth path.
To accelerate this transition to a
sustainable low carbon economy, strategic objectives have been put in place based
on the SAGEM modelling exercise in 2013 which followed a system dynamic
modelling approach (Department of Environmental Affairs
and Energy, 2013):
·
Natural Resource Management
This objective
includes investment in land restoration including virgin land rehabilitation
and alien vegetation eradication will increase water availability and not
reduce land available for agriculture.
This will in turn create more jobs in this sector especially in
restoration of water ecosystem services and biomass for energy (from alien
vegetation).
·
Agriculture
Investments in
conservation agriculture and the use of organic fertilizer which has the
benefit of increased crop yield with minimal impact on ecosystems and water
sources is encouraged.
·
Transport
This sector
requires investments in improving energy efficiency in transport systems
(improved public and goods transport systems) which translates to less energy
consumption and decreasing the carbon intensity of fuel production (Sasol, 2014).
·
Energy demand and supply
The modelling
exercise recommends a 2% of GDP investment into all industry sectors to
increase energy efficiency and thus reduce overall demand going forward. Also the diversification of the energy mix to
increase renewable energy sources to 33% of total mix by 2030.
·
National development
With the
increase of investment in the transition to a low carbon economy in all 4
sectors the energy and agricultural sectors will show the largest job growth
which is the first priority of the country.
Other benefits are the much needed sustainable and long term economic growth
and lowering of GHG (Green House Gas) emissions.
Germany is a prime example of an ongoing
successful transition to a low carbon economy.
The focus up until now has been on
the energy sector as this contributes more than 80% of total GHG emissions (United Nations Climate Change
Secretariat, 2012).
 |
Figure 2: Green House Gas emissions by sector in Germany (excluding Land
Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) (United Nations Climate Change Secretariat, 2012)
·
Renewable energies as a
cornerstone of future energy supply:
·
Energy efficiency as the key
factor
·
An efficient grid
infrastructure for electricity and integration of renewables
·
Energy upgrades for existing buildings
and energy-efficient new buildings
·
Energy for transport system
transformation
·
Energy research towards
innovation and new technologies
·
Energy supply in the European
and international context
·
Acceptance and transparency
Since the start of the ‘Energiewende’ initiative
which is a 40 year project, the
share of renewables in electricity supply reached 25 percent in 2012 and is
still growing. In only the last 10 years, renewable energy in the electricity
sector has quadrupled and after one year from the start of the ‘Energiewende’
initiative, the grid system and overall power capacity has coped well with the
system shift and the shut-down of 8 nuclear power plants. Future plans include
the development of new and smart grids and storage systems.
In Figure 2, the GDP to CO2 emissions
relationship of both South Africa and Germany also indicates a downward trend
for Germany which should accelerate further with the ‘Energiewende’ initiative.
Figure 3: GDP to CO2 emissions relationship for Germany and South Africa (“IEA - Report”, n.d.)
The big question remains, in the aftermath
of the green economy modelling exercise for South Africa, whether there has been
any monitoring of progress and has any progress been made? The OECD Economic Survey report for South
Africa in 2013 found that the policy framework for addressing climate change
and water scarcity is sound but the implementation and eventual monitoring of
these policies has been slow due to inadequate administrative capacity (OECD, 2013). Compared to global
pricing, the prices for energy and water do not cover total costs or reflect
environmental externalities. As part of
the National Development Plan (NDP) South Africa will need to start monitoring
the environmental outcomes, especially water usage and national GHG emissions to
build up a database for benchmarks and to inform further policy decisions which
is the process followed by the ‘Energiewinde’ initiative for the energy sector
in Germany. A further recommendation is
that SA can start monitoring a limited set of headline indicators as set out in
the OECD’s Green Growth Indicators (OECD, n.d.).
The main recommendations put forward by the
OECD Economic Survey Report 2013 to accelerate the decoupling of economic
growth and GHG emissions are as follows:
- Reduce implicit and explicit subsidies for energy and coal consumption, and use other instruments, such as cash transfers or supply vouchers, for protecting the poor;
- In designing climate change mitigation policies, favour broad and easy-to-implement instruments with limited demands on administrative capacity, such as a simple carbon tax;
- Apply the carbon tax as broadly as possible, including the electricity sector;
- Regularly revisit and revise the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) to take into account new information about technologies, costs and demand.
- Increase the emphasis on energy efficiency in construction and industry and;
- Give responsibility for monitoring progress on the various objectives relating to climate change to a single institution, making that institution accountable to parliament via regular reporting.
Once the monitoring body has been put in
place the implementation of these policies with feedback mechanisms can build
the foundation to a faster decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions
in South Africa. Up until then no
progress will be evident.
References
Brent, A.C., Rohwer, M.B., Friedrich, E. & Blottnitz, H. Von. 2002. Status of life cycle assessment and engineering research in South Africa. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. 7(3):167–172. DOI: 10.1007/BF02994051.
Department of Environmental Affairs and Energy. 2013. South African Green Economy Modelling Report (SAGEM). DOI: 10.1038/320390c0.
German Missions in the United States - Climate and Energy Policy. n.d. Available: http://www.germany.info/Vertretung/usa/en/06__Foreign__Policy__State/02__Foreign__Policy/05__KeyPoints/ClimateEnergy__Key.html [2015, July 06].
IEA - Report. n.d. Available: http://www.iea.org/statistics/statisticssearch/report/?&country=SOUTHAFRIC&year=2012&product=Indicators [2015, May 12].
Letete, T., Guma, M. & Marquard, A. 2010. Information on climate change in South Africa : greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation options.
OECD. 2013. OECD Economic Surveys - South Africa. DOI: 10.1787/eco_surveys-jpn-2009-en.
OECD. n.d. Towards Green Growth: Monitoring Progress - OECD Indicators. DOI: 10.1787/9789264111318-en.
Sasol. 2014. Climate Change and Energy Insecurity. DOI: 10.1680/ensu.2011.164.2.161.
Statistics South Africa. n.d. Available: http://www.statssa.gov.za/.
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